Showing posts with label derivatives. Show all posts
Showing posts with label derivatives. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Brown nails his colours to the hedge funds

New Labour’s Gordon Brown has spent his entire period in high office, first as chancellor, and more recently as prime minister, ensuring that the interests of the global financial sector are inextricably enmeshed with the British economy.

Yesterday he intervened personally on behalf of the gamblers and speculators to postpone European negotiations on trying to regulate the derivatives market until after the forthcoming election. Some 70% of the world’s hedge funds are based in London, with an estimated 80% of Europe’s hedge funds and 60% of private equity firms based in the UK.

Clearly it is they and the capital markets they operate that will determine what happens to the British economy whoever the Queen invites to form the new government in the next few weeks. The hedge funds have the power to make or break governments as they are demonstrating in the case of Greece.

Brown and his chancellor Darling are in cahoots with Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s Treasury Secretary in the US, in defending the freebooting masters of the universe. Last week Geithner wrote to EU officials warning that the directive was protectionist and would damage US funds. His letter angered Michel Barnier, EU commissioner for financial services, who said he was not amenable to pressure and would not take instructions "from Paris or London and certainly not from Washington."

Chancellor Darling, who lobbied his Spanish opposite number over the weekend, said Britain would seek more concessions because the current draft directive proposed by Spain threatened blocking international funds from the European market. The chancellor believes that this outcome would be “deeply damaging” to the hedge fund and private equity industries as well as to returns made by pension funds.

So you can see that despite the chorus of calls for regulation that echoed around the world during the worst days of the global meltdown, the interests of the capital markets make powerful governments of whatever political stripe into their servants, willingly or not. And the pressure is building, driving the elected governments of countries and unelected regional blocks into deeper conflict between themselves, but more importantly with their populations.

Brown’s two key interventions in two days – first supporting British Airways against the democratic decision by Unite members to resist the assault on their working conditions and income, and now putting himself between the European Union and the hedge funds, say more about New Labour than the tsunami of words that have already begun to flood the airwaves in the run up to the election.

The capitalist system of production together with the financial sector, its inseparable twin, express their requirements to capitalist governments which carry them out at whatever cost to the people they supposedly represent according to the mythology of “democracy”.

It’s one of the reasons why we call on the people to hang on to your votes in this election. Many people are asking how they can express their opposition when there is no party to represent their interests. In hanging on to your vote, we’re not suggesting that you sit on your hands.

We need to build a new kind of democratic organisation, one that will discuss how to transfer the ownership and control of land, finance, production, food distribution, housing and transport to the people who work in and use them.

To make a start, in response to the EU’s urgent warning to the UK to follow Greece in cutting public sector spending to reduce its debt, People’s Assemblies could organise a mass campaign to defy the financial masters. “It’s not our debt and we won’t pay it!”
That would be a start towards forming an international movement to defeat the power of capital in the form of global corporations and financial institutions in every country, uniting working people around the world against their common enemies.

Gerry Gold
Economics editor

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Good bank, bad bank? Peoples bank!

The European Union (EU) is expected today to approve plans for the Northern Rock bank to be split in two – so-called “good” and “bad” banks. The Rock has been state-owned since the spring of 2008.

This was an early part of New Labour’s attempts to prevent a complete meltdown after customers queued to withdraw their deposits in 2007 when the default rate on sub-prime mortgages in the United States triggered the global credit collapse.

The idea is that the “good” or profitable business will be sold back to the private sector, whilst the “bad” part containing the “toxic” non-performing loans, including the 125% mortgages pressed onto people desperate for housing at any cost, will be retained in the public sector, to be serviced from taxation.

Once EU approval is in place, the principle is likely to be extended to the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds. Supporters of the plan – and there are many from all the main parties – are keen to see wider competition. They want to open the field up to new entrants such as Tesco, Virgin and a range of foreign banks like National Australia Bank – already owner of the Clydesdale and Yorkshire.

The scheme has its roots in the 1930s’ rescue in the United States of a cascade of failing banks. Today’s proponents point to its success in Sweden after the country went through a property market collapse in 1991 which threatened the financial system.

But they choose to ignore the scale of today’s crisis which has engulfed the world’s much more highly-interconnected financial system so critical to the worldwide production and trading activities that underpin the globalised corporations.

The intertwined crises of collapsing consumer demand, shrinking global trade, declining manufacturing and inactive credit markets spell the end of the post-war era of a spiralling growth of commodity production fuelled by cheap labour and mountains of debt.

Plans to restore the financial system to profitability are necessary but not sufficient to restore the capitalist economy to the growth it so badly depends upon for survival.

Throughout its three and a half centuries, the capitalist system has alternated between periods of competitive growth fuelled by the credit that relied on the impossible dreams of ever-increasing profit and the crashes that followed when the interest payments ceased. As the dust clears it reveals the massive overcapacity that must be eliminated before a renewed period of growth can begin. That is the stage of the crisis that we are in now.

The looming impact of the changing climate provides the measure of the damage inflicted on the planet by half a century of profit-motivated credit-fuelled growth. The system of production for profit must be stopped, terminated, replaced. Its replacement can be democratically-determined sustainable production by communities working co-operatively to satisfy their needs and provide opportunities to fulfil individual and collective potential.

This new era will need a system of accounting for exchange and a means of measuring and redistributing the value generated in production to fund development. It won’t need a vast edifice of speculation. Stock and foreign exchange markets can be closed, gambling in the derivatives casino ended.

With democratic control over the finance system, decisions can be made about which debts can be cancelled and which renegotiated. The “good” and “bad” capitalist banks choice is no choice at all. In their place we want genuine people’s banks that protect savings and extend social investment.

It’ll need a social revolution to make these changes, but what’s the alternative?

Gerry Gold
Economics editor

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

'Extraordinary measures' the order of the day

The capitalist system is both broke and broken – and neither New Labour nor the Tories can fix it. Banks can’t and won’t lend, the housing market has collapsed, job losses are piling up (Woolworths finally collapsed this morning) and the state itself is being pawned in the hope that there’ll be money in the future to redeem the pledge.

And where will this money to repay the billions in government borrowing come from? From ordinary working people of course, in the shape of higher VAT purchase tax at 18.5%, increased national insurance contribution and cuts in spending in education and health. As for the so-called increase in taxes for higher earnings, experts have shown they probably won’t raise an extra penny.

At least this is the plan, which is based on an economic “recovery” in 2010 that exists only in the imagination of chancellor Darling and prime minister Brown. Yesterday the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) forecast that the recession would hit the British economy hardest of all the major economies. The OECD’s latest economic outlook cites the housing market bubble and the banking crisis for their assessment.

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, warned that the recession would be “steep” unless commercial banks started lending again. But why aren’t the banks lending? After all, a bank that doesn’t lend can hardly call itself a bank. King did not answer this question when he was questioned by MPs. For the governor’s information, the banks are not lending because they consider borrowers too high a risk and, most importantly, their capital base is as firm as jelly, despite huge government bail-outs.

The reality, which is admittedly difficult to comprehend, is that there are no capitalist-style policy fixes for an economic and financial crisis that is both global in scope and extremely deep. So the choices are stark: either sit back and let the crisis takes its course (Tories); bankrupt the country (New Labour) in a desperate bid to revive the economy; or put capitalism out of its misery, which is the most difficult option but would be the most rewarding.

How could this done? How can working people be organised and mobilised to take power out of the hands of an undemocratic capitalist state that cannot control the monster it helped create and transnational corporations that drove the credit-fuelled consumer binge that is ultimately responsible for the financial crash?

First, we have to take our case to every corner of the land and say: the economic and financial system isn’t working and can’t be fixed and the consequences for ordinary people are unacceptable in every regard. Secondly, we must show that the existing political system is dominated by the interests of the very people who have wrecked the economy. On this basis, we can mobilise people around the proposal to create a new political democracy that will enable ordinary people to take direct control of economic and financial resources along the lines proposed in Unmasking the State and our Charter for Democracy.

In place of bail-outs for the banks, a real democratic government would re-establish the banking system on a co-operative, mutually-owned basis. It would outlaw fantasy finance activities such as derivatives and “securitisation” of debt and other forms of speculation that have contributed to the crash. The economy would be reorganised too, developing production motivated by social and personal needs and not shareholders’ profits. These changes would allow for a substantial increase in workers’ income, alleviating the need to build up vast debts in order to buy goods and services. These are, of course, revolutionary proposals. But, as even chancellor Darling himself has admitted, we need extraordinary measures for extraordinary times!

Paul Feldman
AWTW communications editor

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The storm is just starting to blow

Gordon Brown is being feted as the “master of the universe”. Stock markets yesterday were delirious with joy, making record-breaking, stratospheric leaps yesterday as governments around the world bailed out the banks. Right-wing Tory newspapers joined in unalloyed praise for the bankers’ government.

Is the financial storm over then? Er, no actually.

So far, sums approaching £2,000 billion (= £2 trillion) of taxpayers’ money has been committed by the governments of America, the UK and Europe to the bankers’ bail-out. Central banks are pouring “unlimited” amounts of US dollars into the global financial system in what will prove yet another failed attempt to prevent the mother of all meltdowns.

How can we be so sure?

Yes, £2 trillion sounds a lot, but the collecting bucket is effectively bottomless. This unimaginably large sum of money is dwarfed by a series of other giant hot-air balloons of fantasy finance queuing to burst in the background whilst Brown’s Punch to the bankers’ Judy struts temporarily in the foreground.

Among the balloons is the market in credit default swaps (CDS), a way of trading in risk. It began life in the mid-1990s and, largely because it has always been unregulated, and appeared to offer the possibility of reducing, or at least sharing risk, it attracted a great deal of interest.

The simple version of the story goes that a swap enables an organisation making a loan to a customer to insure against the customer defaulting on payments by establishing a private contract with a third party, paying a kind of insurance premium. It can’t be called “insurance” because that would make it liable to regulation. You wouldn’t want to call it “protection” either. People might think you’re a gangster.

The market grew very fast. Most major organisations are now caught up with each other in a lacework of interconnected contracts. Ok, so how much are we talking about? It’s difficult to be precise, because all the trading is in unregulated contracts hidden from public view. Nobody really knows. Data from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (!) show that at the end of June, the CDS market had a notional value of $54 trillion. That's the same as the planet's 2007 GDP and nearly four times the value of all shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Other estimates puts the figure nearer $65 trillion. So what is the chance of this particular balloon bursting? It already did. On Friday, Moneyweek put it like this:

“When one side of a trade defaults, it starts a chain reaction that raises the risk of others losing money. That's called 'counterparty risk', and is partly what has spooked investors into selling off assets and lenders into curbing credit. The collapse of Lehman Brothers has had a particularly big impact. Lehman wrote more than $700bn-worth of CDS. Now it's gone bust, investors who had taken out these CDS have been left without the insurance, so they're having to buy more, even though prices are now rising because of the general turmoil.”

Initial results of the auction to determine the value of CDS on Lehman Brothers showed banks, hedge funds and other sellers of protection facing losses in the area of 90.25% of the insurance they sold.

The CDS market is only 10% of the global derivatives market, which covers all contracts taken out to minimise risk. This is the mysterious, unregulated world of futures, forwards, options and swaps. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the notional amounts outstanding at the end of 2007 totalled about $550 trillion on contracts privately traded between parties. As the global recession deepens, the number of parties unable to fulfil contracts will grow rapidly.

Is the storm over? It’s only just beginning to blow!

Gerry Gold
Economics editor

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

On a knife edge

The Financial Times puts it like this: “The world has not ended. The international economy has not yet collapsed. But one thing is now quite clear: the banking system as we know it has failed.” Note the “yet” because the financial earthquake that produced the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merill Lynch will claim more victims and translate into economic slump.

The American International Group, a global insurance company that sits at the centre of the world’s financial system, is on a knife edge. Others in the sickbay include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the HBOS bank in Britain. “The locusts may be running out of big names to attack, but there are still some big names in the market’s sites,” said Alan Ruskin at the RBS Greenwich Capital.

After a series of spectacular rescues, starting a year ago with Northern Rock, the world’s central banks have reached the already-stretched limits of possibility in their attempts to avert disaster. They can only stand and watch as the laws of the market take their toll on debt-laden financial institutions that are unable to keep their operations going.

On Friday, Lehman Brothers was an investment bank with $42 billion of liquid assets. By Monday it was bankrupt. Why? Lehman Brothers had invested 35 times the value of its capital in a variety of exotic instruments that few people understand. The bank depended, however, on constant refinancing. But with great holes appearing in the balance sheet, the loans dried up and Lehman Brothers was suddenly a financial king with no clothes.

Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel prize winner in economics, and former senior chief economist of the World Bank says: “The present financial crisis springs from a catastrophic collapse in confidence.” According to Stiglitz it is “the fruit of a pattern of dishonesty on the part of financial institutions, and incompetence on the part of policymakers”. He should know. It was the objective, law-governed pressure for the expansion of capital that transformed the role of the World Bank and created new institutions like the World Trade Organisation which obliged governments to reduce and eliminate regulation.

As we explained last year, in A House of Cards, the disintegration began in 2005 when the frantic period of credit-fuelled growth that had produced globalised corporations reached the limits of the markets. Consumers, who had been equipped with new ways to accumulate debt so as to buy the torrent of cheap commodities needed to fill their newly-acquired mortgage-funded properties found themselves at the limits of their ability to repay even the interest on their mountainous loans.

So came the collapse of the pyramid of exotic, toxic, derivative financial products which had been invented to provide a mirage of wealth. But, just like the highly-profile “extenders” used to cheapen and debase the food we eat, they too had no real value. Instead, just as we have been poisoned and weakened by “food” consisting of fats and sugars, these worthless financial products poisoned and weakened the real, productive economy.

What to do? The Financial Times says things have begun so bad “as to render a coherent regulatory riposte impossible”. We agree. The financial and economic and social system based around production for profit is broken. It is beyond repair and must be replaced. It means moving rapidly to a system based around social ownership, and the identification and satisfaction of need. Only then will we be able to begin to repair the damage done to the planet’s eco-systems by decades of wilful destruction by credit-crazed capitalist corporations.


Gerry Gold
Economics editor