Despite massive state intervention, including two interest rate reductions and huge injections of credit, the Chinese economy has been unable to withstand the consequences of global overcapacity.
The contraction in
immense, globally-significant manufacturing sector is recorded by two,
complementary measures. HSBC, the
global financial conglomerate, measures activity in the smaller, private firms,
and its index has been in contraction territory for ten months in a row.
Last month the official government-maintained measure of manufacturing activity, focussing on big state-owned firms which have been heavily supported by government spending on infrastructure, fell to a lower-than-expected 49.2 in August.
The impact of the growing Chinese downturn is being felt sharply in the
In August, manufacturing activity shrank for the third month in row. The
Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded that new orders – an indicator of future
demand – fell to 47.1 from a reading of
48 in July.
Anything above 50 indicates expansion. Below 50 means contraction. August’s figure is the lowest since the depths of the post-crash recession in April 2009.
Looking deeper we discover that In the US manufacturing comprises only 12% of economic activity, and its continuing growth has been founded upon a drive to lower wages.
Millions of relatively well-paid skilled jobs were lost following the crash as unemployment soared to be replaced by a much smaller number of low-paid workers in the service sector.
A new report from the National Employment Law Project shows that companies in the
eliminated about 8.1 million jobs after the recession began in late 2007. The
economy has since recovered only about 3.3 million of those jobs, starting in
During the recession, employment losses occurred throughout the economy, but were concentrated in mid-wage occupations. By contrast, during the recovery, employment gains have been concentrated in lower-wage occupations, which grew 2.7 times as fast as mid-wage and higher-wage occupations. Specifically:
- Lower-wage occupations were 21% of recession losses, but 58% of recovery growth.
- Mid-wage occupations were 60% of recession losses, but only 22% of recovery growth
- Higher-wage occupations were 19% of recession job losses, and 20% of recovery growth.
In the US unemployment benefits cease after 23 months and many workers either disappear off the employment statistics altogether or are forced into low-paying jobs. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management sums it up very bluntly: “The cost of labour is very cheap,”
Whilst cheap labour is good for short-term profit, which is reflected in the results of US corporations in particular, in the longer term it adds another twist to the downward spiral. This is because the decline in real incomes, which is being felt throughout the world, results in weaker demand.
According to Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp in
New York, the proliferation of “very
distressed workers” hurts consumption, which, he estimates is likely to
increase just 1.5% in the next six quarters.
But the drive to lower wage costs is just as relentless as the global manufacturing contraction and workers in the
US and Europe
face further attacks in the competitive drive to the bottom.
Foxconn Technology Group's is the main manufacturer of Apple products like the hugely successful iPads and iPhone, and Apple became the world’s most valuable company ever in August surging to $624 billion in market value.
The company has been criticised for factory conditions in
in a series of deaths and suicides. Foxconn is now investing $10 billion in Indonesia where manufacturing wage costs are 60%
percent of China's.
Just think of that the next time you use an ubiquitous Apple product.