Without a dramatic cut in carbon emissions,
earth systems will reach a point beyond the scope of any mitigation or
adaptation, according to a leaked
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The publication online of a draft
of the report, 2014: Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability, due out in
September next year, coincides with news that concentrations of atmospheric
greenhouse gases reached their highest ever annual level in 2012.
The World Meteorological Organisation’s
(WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin says there were 393.1 parts per million
(ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2012, an increase of 2.2ppm over
2011. It was in May last that year that the 400ppm level was breached for the
first time.
Between 1990 and 2012 there was a
32% increase in radiative forcing, the process that drives global warming. Carbon
dioxide, mainly from fossil fuel burning, accounted for 80% of the increase but
the WMO has also measured a big increase in methane.
The IPCC report summarises in graphic
detail the result of continuing on this path. Some changes have already
happened:
- Changing rainfall and melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources and quality
- Terrestrial and marine species have shifted their ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, and abundance
- Increased tree mortality has been attributed to climate change
- Permafrost is warming and thawing in mountain regions.
Human health is suffering mainly as
a result of poverty and inequality, but climate change is making the situation
much worse. And the greatest impact will be on food supplies which could
decrease by 2% per decade for the rest of this century.
The New
York Times, which first reported the IPCC leak report, summed it up:
"The scientists describe a natural world in turmoil as plants and animals
colonize new areas to escape rising temperatures, and warn that many could
become extinct.”
Huge amounts of money are already
being spent to mitigate these impacts by way of cleaning up after floods and
tornados; new flood defences; higher food prices; higher insurance premiums; subsidies
to drought-affected farmers; the cost of bringing marginal land into industrial
food production; food aid and new agricultural methods.
The investment of public resources is
massive, though far less of it spent in poorer countries where the impacts are
greatest, the report finds.
But without immediate cuts in
emissions lasting over decades, it may all be in vain. "Greater rates and
magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation
limits… In some parts of the world, current failures to address emerging
impacts are already eroding the basis for sustainable development."
So we could reach a point where nothing helps, and some areas of the world are almost there already.
The IPCC hints at a solution to this eco-social crisis. Looking at actions that
can help it states with "high confidence":
"Transformations in political, economic, and technological systems resulting from changes in paradigms and goals can facilitate adaptation and mitigation and promote sustainable development."
Such a change is crucial for taking
decisions that have long lead in times, including "introduction of new technologies
or practices, formation of new structures or systems of governance, or shifts
in the location of activities”.
And the report warns: "Societal
debates over risks from forced and reactive transformations as opposed to
deliberate transitions to sustainability may place new and increased demands on
governance structures to reconcile conflicting goals and visions for the future."
In other words, the collapse of
earth systems and the descent of human society into violence and war is a clear
and present danger as a result of the failure to tackle climate change in a
planned way.
To prevent that catastrophe, we
really need to carry through a social transformation to establish democratic
governance as soon as possible. Capitalism as an economic and political system
has clearly proved incapable of responding to the challenges outlined by the
IPCC.
Penny Cole
Environment editor
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