Citizens of every country will pay a massive, painful price
for the melting of Arctic sea ice, even though capitalist corporations and
governments view it as a potential profit bonanza.
A study in the journal
Nature models the economic impact
of the release of 50-gigatonnes of methane from melting permafrost and shows it
would result in flooding, sea-level rise, agriculture damage and health impacts
amounting to a cost of $60 trillion – roughly the size of the entire global
economy last year.
And a parallel study confirms that this release of methane
is already happening at an alarming rate. The melting of the Greenland
ice sheet started a little later this year but is spreading fast and will
probably match last year's record melt by September.
The result of this annual trend is that permafrost in the
Arctic, in Siberia and Alaska
is melting, releasing methane and speeding up global warming.
The methane could continue to be released gradually, albeit
on a rising trend, or there could be a sudden pulse as tipping points are
reached. This would push temperatures up so fast we could reach 2 degrees above
pre-industrial levels by 2035.
Once you say that of course you are really saying
"anytime" because emissions of all greenhouse gases continue to rise
and no effort is being made to halt or slow them. A feedback effect could kick
in at any moment.
A slowing of the rise in temperatures over the last few
years provided a breathing space.
But instead of using this to take urgent action to halt the
growth in emissions, it was simply exploited by climate change deniers to say
there is no global warming.
Now we know that much of the heat was being absorbed into
the deep oceans and as they lose their capacity to soak up more, warming will
take off again. Indeed, the overall upward trend has never halted, with all the
hottest summers on record taking place during this disputed period.
Corporations and governments may be greedily eyeing the Arctic , but alongside the process already in train, this scenario
would result in the worst possible conditions for agriculture. The worst
effects would be in Africa, Asia and South America, but no country is immune as
farmers from Europe and America
can testify.
But the opposite of action to halt emissions is happening;
Lloyds of London estimates more than $100bn will be invested in extraction and
shipping in the Arctic in the next five years.
Writing these blogs, one begins to feel a bit like the
Trojan prophetess Cassandra who was locked up as a madwoman by the fellow
citizens for warning them the war with the Greeks could only end in disaster.
But so be it – the truth can always bear repeating, which is
that without system change we cannot begin to start to slow and then reverse
climate change. If the corporations are permitted to start operating in the Arctic , the consequences are unthinkable.
Solutions are tantalisingly within reach – from
permaculture, perennial grains, recycling of waste products to support organic
farming, to abandoning fossil fuels in favour of locally-planned renewable
energy strategies, and, in the case of the Arctic ,
leaving the fossil fuels and minerals in the ground!
But capitalism cannot permit this approach. As Bolivian
climate strategist Pablo Solon puts it: "In this race to the top, capital
needs to colonize territories and natural resources, decrease the cost of human
labour, develop new technologies and promote new financial, investment and
trade rules that allow capital to have more and more profit."
As a result, capitalism has already, in Solon’s words,
"reached and surpassed the limits of the Earth system". To redress
the damage, and to have a future for humanity, we must move to a model where
humans work in harmony with nature and that means that the absolute supremacy
of growth and profit must be overthrown.
Penny Cole
Environment editor
No comments:
Post a Comment