The Egyptian revolution has reached a critical point, with
the weakness and lack of strategy of the opposition leadership allowing a
once-discredited army elite to resume a key role just over a year after it was
forced to yield power to civilian authority.
As a result, the growing authoritarianism of the
Morsi/Muslim Brotherhood regime has, for the time being, been replaced by an
authoritarian military-backed regime. The suspension of the constitution, the
arrest of Morsi and the closing down of Muslim Brotherhood media outlets are
dangerous signs.
So too is the reinstatement by the Supreme Judicial Council yesterday of Mubarak-era judge Abdel Meguid Mahmoud to the post of prosecutor
general months after he was removed by Morsi.
With the liberals in Tamarod, who called for the street
campaign to oust Morsi, joining the “interim” regime, the masses have been led
up a cul de sac. The new regime has no intention of changing the real power
relations in Egypt ,
whereby the army and the capitalist class between them direct and control the
economy. Fresh elections for the presidency will not alter this position.
That explains the muted response to Morsi’s removal by the
White House and the ConDem government. Their concern for the democratic process
is, of course, hypocrisy writ large after decades of propping up Mubarak. Obama
et al simply want the people off the streets as soon as possible in case other
people cotton on to how revolutions work.
The Egyptian street was powerful enough to bring down the Morsi
government that was increasingly ruling by decree and had failed to address
soaring unemployment, rising prices and inequality. In fact, it was negotiating
with the International Monetary Fund to end subsidies on key foodstuffs.
But as a situation of dual power developed in a revolution
that is striving to go further than democratic reform, the movement was headed
off at the pass. Tamarod
(Rebel) has affirmed its support for the military’s intervention, as have a
number of human
rights groups.
Jonathan Steele, the Guardian
commentator, is right when he says: “The fact that the army's move has been
welcomed by many of the revolutionaries who first had the courage to go into
the streets against Mubarak in 2011 is a desperate commentary on their
political naivety and shortsightedness.”
No good can ever come of the army’s role. History has shown
repeatedly from Chile to Greece
that the army is part of the status quo of the capitalist state and will remain
so until that state is deconstructed. Declaring that it is “on the side of the
people” is what Allende told Chileans shortly before Pinochet seized power in
1973.
What the Egyptian masses have shown is their capacity to
become the decisive force in society. That is a lesson that will not be lost on
people struggling against austerity and inequality around the globe as the
economic crisis deepens.
But what is equally true is that without a plan, without a
strategy that is based on actually taking the power away from the ruling
elites, the revolution cannot succeed. The reorganisation of the economy along
democratically-owned and controlled lines and the guaranteeing of human rights
cannot be achieved within the existing political-state framework.
In Egypt ,
power was up for grabs but the inadequacy of the movement’s leadership saw the
ball grabbed by the army as a vacuum emerged. The illusion that power can slip
into the hands of the masses by sheer energy and presence alone is just that –
an illusion.
The situation remains fluid, with the army balancing between
the contending classes. The aspirations of the masses remain unfulfilled while their
determination to win is undiminished. To prevent a counter-revolution from
taking hold, in Egypt
they will need to build a leadership and develop a strategy that actually has
power as its goal. In other words, the social and political revolution have to
come together. This is actually the challenge in every capitalist country
today.
Paul Feldman
Communications editor
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